作者:Pan, YJ (Pan, Yingjie)[ 1 ] ; Yao, X (Yao, Xing)[ 2 ] ; Wang, X (Wang, Xin)[ 3 ] ; Zhu, L (Zhu, Lei)[ 1 ]
ENERGY ECONOMICS
卷: 78页: 454-467
DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.11.022
出版年: FEB 2019
文献类型:Article
摘要
Solar power has achieved great development in the last decade, and it should continue to play a central role in the face of climate change and sustainable development challenges. This paper builds a real options model that provides a microeconomic analytical framework with the Least Squares Monte Carlo (ISM) method to assess the investment choices of a typical solar panel producer in China facing trade and domestic supply- and demand-side policy uncertainties. It builds a baseline scenario and three policy scenarios with decreasing anti-dumping and countervailing charges, constant feed-in tariff (FIT) level and reduced investment cost. A typical producer will have to make an investment decision on building a new production line in five years based on a decision impact analysis within 20 years. The result shows an immediate investment decision for all scenarios. The producer will have higher return from investment in building a solar power plant with a constant FIT. Export is the optimal choice in other scenarios where investment return is lower. After sensitivity analysis, the paper concludes and can be used as a toolkit for solar panel producers and a reference for policy makers to evaluate the impact of policy uncertainties. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V.
关键词
作者关键词:Solar power; Feed-in tariffs; Anti-dumping and countervailing; Least Squares Monte Carlo
KeyWords Plus:POWER-GENERATION; SWITCHING COSTS; OPTIONS; MODEL; SIMULATION; INDUSTRY
作者信息
通讯作者地址:
Beihang University Beihang Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China.
Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po) Sci Po, Inst Sustainable Dev & Int Relat IDDRI, Paris, France.
通讯作者地址: Zhu, L (通讯作者)
Beihang Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China.
通讯作者地址: Wang, X (通讯作者)
Sci Po, Inst Sustainable Dev & Int Relat IDDRI, Paris, France.
